RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	-0.01114
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	-0.077943
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.0
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.001828
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	0.000548
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.003255

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