RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.014572
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.00375
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.26161
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.013387
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.008957
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.291121
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.036298
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.136866
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.119012
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.029836
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.048502
Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.068404
Jan 4, 2022 01:19PM	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.011906
Jan 4, 2022 01:16PM	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	-0.01919
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.00214
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	0.161913
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.036336
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.015543
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.079364
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.117916

Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

-0.014572

Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

-0.00375

May 31, 2022 03:08PM

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

-0.26161

Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

-0.013387