Yes, I think it likely that this will be announced as guaranteeing 'truth' and generating trust is a major marketing feature.
1.044013
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It may not happen in this time frame.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think that there is a high probability of disinformation threats on Meta's platform arising from “coordinated inauthentic behavior networks".
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The covert accounts are increasingly sophisticated.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Enablement of this feature is not the same as mandating it's use and I guess could be done relatively easily. This will answer some criticism and show action on the part of the companies.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As essentially a voluntary code, it would be meaningless.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
extrapolation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
the initial take up has already been more than I would have expected, so my prediction may be wrong.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I believe that legislation is unlikely to move quicker than this time frame but I think that the increased political / market pressure on the companies to do something will result in labelling as an easy and quick way to get after this.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Within the time frame that we are talking about, I do not believe that the systems are intelligent enough to detect AI on their own and will be reliant on a voluntary code of conduct.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?