lucky-robin-90

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2023 Season Stats

2.703432

Relative Brier Score

6

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 6
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 Definitions
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the demand for the AI services will outstrip the concerns and that political / market forces will drive access. 
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Why might you be wrong?
regulation and governance application on some, but not all, open AI models may mean that this is only partially applied.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Yes, I think it likely that this will be announced as guaranteeing 'truth' and generating trust is a major marketing feature. 

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Why might you be wrong?
It may not happen in this time frame. 
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I think that there is a high probability of disinformation threats on Meta's platform arising from “coordinated inauthentic behavior networks". 
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Why might you be wrong?
The covert accounts are increasingly sophisticated. 
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Enablement of this feature is not the same as mandating it's use and I guess could be done relatively easily.  This will answer some criticism and show action on the part of the companies. 
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Why might you be wrong?
As essentially a voluntary code, it would be meaningless. 
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New Prediction
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
lucky-robin-90 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
75%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
extrapolation. 
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Why might you be wrong?
the initial take up has already been more than I would have expected, so my prediction may be wrong. 
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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I believe that legislation is unlikely to move quicker than this time frame but I think that the increased political / market pressure on the companies to do something will result in labelling as an easy and quick way to get after this. 
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Why might you be wrong?
Within the time frame that we are talking about, I do not believe that the systems are intelligent enough to detect AI on their own and will be reliant on a voluntary code of conduct. 
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