max-daniel

Max Daniel

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Project Manager for the Research Scholars Programme at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.838217
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	0.199499
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	0.069451
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.184997
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.106574
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.129731
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.011184
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.17595
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.055043
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.04705
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.043863
Feb 5, 2021 05:35PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	0.021051
Jan 4, 2021 01:58PM	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	0.024584
Jan 4, 2021 01:49PM	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.073601
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.003403
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.050903
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.152854
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.363656