RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.006186
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.20504
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	0.119926
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.057142
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.023904
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?	0.09085
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	0.012492
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.260552
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	0.185946
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	0.0255
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.000156
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.027499
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.008382
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000074
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	0.000247
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.000158
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.005263
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.000202
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.000675
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.05288

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