mbransfield

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.006186
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.20504
    Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? 0.119926
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.057142
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.023904
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? 0.09085
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? 0.012492
    Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.260552
    Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? 0.185946
    Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? 0.0255
    Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.000156
    Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.027499
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.008382
    Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000074
    Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.000247
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.000158
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.005263
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.000202
    Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.000675
    Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? -0.05288
     
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