There's no obvious, looming reason China would tighten quotas in this time frame.
-0.041357
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While China is a large market for Microsoft, the US and US government are much, much larger. China has become increasingly hostile to researchers and Chinese-US relations continue to deteriorate, and it may no longer be viable to maintain a research lab there.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would be a large organizational change which could negatively harm Microsoft's interests in China. Without a specific inciting incident, a move may be viewed as too expensive.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Putin has been very active in removing any potential threats to his leadership and legitimacy, making removal by anything other than death unlikely.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Putin has been very active in removing any potential threats to his leadership and legitimacy, making removal by anything other than death unlikely.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The Meta-owned platforms are investing heavily in AI, and Twitter similarly is claiming to be investing heavily in xAI. I would guess their interests mean they'd be unwilling to do anything that officially depicts AI-created content as undesirable.
Why might you be wrong?
My top three guesses: (1) a European country requires it (though enforcement within 2024 would be shocking); (2) Musk announces this due to his public stance of "removing bots from Twitter"; (3) the rules of this competition are construed so that promotional labeling ("this post was created by LLAMA -- try it yourself") is considered to be a label, even if only posts drafted in the app itself are labeled.
The question clarification posted already since Jan 12 precludes such a scenario: