There's no obvious, looming reason China would tighten quotas in this time frame.
-0.041357
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While China is a large market for Microsoft, the US and US government are much, much larger. China has become increasingly hostile to researchers and Chinese-US relations continue to deteriorate, and it may no longer be viable to maintain a research lab there.
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Why might you be wrong?
This would be a large organizational change which could negatively harm Microsoft's interests in China. Without a specific inciting incident, a move may be viewed as too expensive.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Putin has been very active in removing any potential threats to his leadership and legitimacy, making removal by anything other than death unlikely.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Putin has been very active in removing any potential threats to his leadership and legitimacy, making removal by anything other than death unlikely.
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Why do you think you're right?
The Meta-owned platforms are investing heavily in AI, and Twitter similarly is claiming to be investing heavily in xAI. I would guess their interests mean they'd be unwilling to do anything that officially depicts AI-created content as undesirable.
Why might you be wrong?
My top three guesses: (1) a European country requires it (though enforcement within 2024 would be shocking); (2) Musk announces this due to his public stance of "removing bots from Twitter"; (3) the rules of this competition are construed so that promotional labeling ("this post was created by LLAMA -- try it yourself") is considered to be a label, even if only posts drafted in the app itself are labeled.
The question clarification posted already since Jan 12 precludes such a scenario: