After discussing with teammate, there is a possibility that Putins speech increases alarm within Russia's borders- however because of the hurdle that must be reached to pass 400, I am keeping my percentage unchanged.
Inside and outside view unchanged
Why do you think you're right?
After team discussion, I am bumping up from 0% back to 1%. This is on the back of our consideration about internal protests or the escalation of Putin's rhetoric.
Source: https://www.afr.com/world/europe/putin-rails-against-west-in-ukraine-war-speech-20230221-p5cmet
Outside view remains the same. Inside view updated after talk and Putin's speech.
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong about the probability being so low since it is not unprecedented historically to have approval drop in the middle of a war.
Reference: Vietnam and the LBJ administration