RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	In the next edition of the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, will there be 6 or more Chinese universities with a research score of 60 or greater in computer science?	0.101218
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)	-0.00014
Oct 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Nov 2022	-0.241378
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	-0.000053
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	0.006443
Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022	-0.030233
Sep 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2022 and Sep 17, 2022)	0.0
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000252
Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022	0.029925
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	-0.009727
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022)	-0.000097
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.003322
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.021204
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.059633
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.016328
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC	How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?	-0.117484
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	0.347053
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	0.381201
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	0.055382

mudiku

Roman Hagelstein

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