RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.00915
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.106761
Jul 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 17, 2022 and Jul 17, 2022)	-0.000953
Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022	-0.01769
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.034215
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.000533
Jul 01, 2022 01:33PM UTC	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	-0.073346
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.020133
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.034239
Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2022 and Jun 17, 2022)	-0.003061
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022	0.010416
Jun 04, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	0.089848
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	0.002929
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.03526
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.003666
May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022)	0.0035
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	-0.05151
May 06, 2022 09:00PM UTC	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	0.056394
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	-0.001593
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.001803

mudiku

Roman Hagelstein

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