Making my first forecast!
-0.006251
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The institutional apparatus built by Putin makes it difficult to imagine his leadership contested. The shady nature of the russian democracy combined with Putin's high popularity amongst the population cement my perspective.
Why might you be wrong?
A military defeat in Ukraine might shake Putin's image and leadership, with economic consequences in an already heavily sanctioned country having the potential of worsening Putin's situation.