Making my first forecast!
-0.011792
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The institutional apparatus built by Putin makes it difficult to imagine his leadership contested. The shady nature of the russian democracy combined with Putin's high popularity amongst the population cement my perspective.
Why might you be wrong?
A military defeat in Ukraine might shake Putin's image and leadership, with economic consequences in an already heavily sanctioned country having the potential of worsening Putin's situation.