4th

Accuracy Rank

mycroft42

AJ

About:

JD student (1L) and teaching English in Japan

Oracle - Silver

Top Forecaster - Oct 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	25%	24%	+1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	35%	40%	-5%	+2%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	8%	-3%	-1%
No	95%	92%	+3%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	22%	+7%	+0%
No	71%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	78%	-7%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	99%	-3%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	57%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	57%	+0%	+0%
No	43%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	43%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	7%	+11%	+0%
No	82%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	93%	-11%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	99%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	3%	0%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Odesa	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	8%	7%	+1%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+0%