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Questions Forecasted
29
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 13 | 454 | 29 | 574 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(-17%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
65%
(+17%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing my forecast for now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lacking in information
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New Badge
Power Forecaster - Feb 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Togo
29%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files