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New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Togo
29%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files