mycroft42

AJ
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Relative Brier Score
13680012345678
Questions Forecasted

29

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 21 454 29 574
Comments 1 2 22 5 42
Questions Forecasted 5 8 25 8 34
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 9 0 22
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 23rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
90% (0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
mycroft42
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35% (-17%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
65% (+17%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Decreasing my forecast for now

Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lacking in information
Files
New Badge
mycroft42
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Feb 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
91% (0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (0%)
Moldova
0% (0%)
Armenia
5% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mycroft42
made their 19th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Togo
29% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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