9 countries are out, but Wagner is expanding and Africa is large. I couldn't find anything on Togo specifically, so I'm not adjusting its probability in either direction.
-0.003785
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
Togo
66%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I don't see much reason to go above the base rate. Rumours of a military base in a ton of different countries seems more scaremongering than substance. On the other hand, China is becoming more aggresive over the years, so I'll adjust slightly upwards.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
49%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Laplace gives different priors depending on the period considered:
Since 1950 - 52%
Since 2000 - 41%
Since 2020 - 61%
I'm naively averaging between them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-1%)
Yes
88%
(+1%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Nothing has happened and Iran seems open to negotiations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
(0%)
Yes
61%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 10:59AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
32%
(-7%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
68%
(+7%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
Things seem to have calmed down a bit
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
44%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
56%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 28%
recalibrating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
,
Files