Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 11, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 11, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 12, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 5% | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 7% | 5% | +3% | -2% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 10:36AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 10:36AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 10:57AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 10:57AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 44% | 4% | +40% | -46% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 56% | 94% | -38% | +47% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39% | 8% | +31% | -30% |
| No | 61% | 92% | -31% | +30% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:04AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:04AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:06AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 34% | -22% | +17% |
| No | 88% | 66% | +22% | -17% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:08AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 36% | -16% | -10% |
| No | 80% | 64% | +16% | +10% |