Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2024 11:55PM
(7 months ago)
Aug 11, 2024 11:55PM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2024 12:01AM
(7 months ago)
Aug 12, 2024 12:01AM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 5% | 1% | +4% | -3% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 7% | 2% | +5% | -5% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:06AM
(7 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:06AM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 9% | +3% | -8% |
| No | 88% | 91% | -3% | +8% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM
(7 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 39% | -19% | -7% |
| No | 80% | 61% | +19% | +7% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 12:14PM
(7 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 12:14PM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 4% | 11% | -7% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 66% | 33% | +33% | +3% |