9 countries are out, but Wagner is expanding and Africa is large. I couldn't find anything on Togo specifically, so I'm not adjusting its probability in either direction.
0.012928
Relative Brier Score
40
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
Togo
66%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I don't see much reason to go above the base rate. Rumours of a military base in a ton of different countries seems more scaremongering than substance. On the other hand, China is becoming more aggresive over the years, so I'll adjust slightly upwards.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
49%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Laplace gives different priors depending on the period considered:
Since 1950 - 52%
Since 2000 - 41%
Since 2020 - 61%
I'm naively averaging between them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-1%)
Yes
88%
(+1%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Nothing has happened and Iran seems open to negotiations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
(0%)
Yes
61%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 10:59AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
32%
(-7%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
68%
(+7%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Aug 30, 2025
Things seem to have calmed down a bit
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
44%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
56%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 28%
recalibrating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
,
Files