143rd
Accuracy Rank

ncm

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Forecasted Questions

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2023 06:48PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 2% 1%
Oman 2% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 5% 2%
Tunisia 2% 1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 01:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 10% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 20% 7%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 02:40PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 1%
No 92% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 02:54PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2023 11:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2023 08:29PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 1% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2023 10:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 0%
No 95% 100%
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