Forecasted Questions
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2023 06:48PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jul 26, 2023 06:48PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | -2% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Saudi Arabia | 5% | 2% | +3% | -3% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | -3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 01:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 05, 2023 01:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 10% | 9% | +1% | -6% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 20% | 6% | +14% | -8% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 02:40PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 05, 2023 02:40PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 1% | +7% | -13% |
| No | 92% | 99% | -7% | +13% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 02:54PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 05, 2023 02:54PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | -6% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +6% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2023 11:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 25, 2023 11:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | -17% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +17% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2023 08:29PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 29, 2023 08:29PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -6% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 99% | +0% | +7% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2023 10:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 05, 2023 10:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 0% | +5% | -10% |
| No | 95% | 100% | -5% | +10% |