RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023	-0.000418
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	-0.000074
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.002324
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.021964
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	-0.000722
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.000881
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.00296
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.011047
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.077011
Jan 02, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?	0.003219
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.024105
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.000304
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	-0.018755
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.405169
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.007234
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	0.142353
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.015876
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.003559
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	-0.000286
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.023079

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