-0.000083
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Based on a rough estimation and using a speculative annual mortality rate of 2% for a 71-year-old male in Russia, the probability of living until the first of May from today is approximately 99.7%. This calculation is highly generalized and should be taken with caution, as actual survival probabilities depend on various factors including specific health conditions, lifestyle, and access to medical care. I am moving it up for 0.7 % based on the fact that he is a president of a country currently engaged in war.