-0.000083
Relative Brier Score
0
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Based on a rough estimation and using a speculative annual mortality rate of 2% for a 71-year-old male in Russia, the probability of living until the first of May from today is approximately 99.7%. This calculation is highly generalized and should be taken with caution, as actual survival probabilities depend on various factors including specific health conditions, lifestyle, and access to medical care. I am moving it up for 0.7 % based on the fact that he is a president of a country currently engaged in war.