As explained by others below, the delays, lack of announcement, and Musk's tweet all suggest that we're looking at least a few weeks into april.
0.072831
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Badge
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unforeseen changes, faster FAA approval, may still impact the launch timeline
Files
A little higher than the crowd, giving more weight to the outside view