.png)
Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 99% | +0% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 22% | +3% | -12% |
| No | 75% | 78% | -3% | +12% |