RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025	Dec 13, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:53PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:53PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025	Oct 13, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025	Oct 13, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025	Oct 13, 2024	6%	+1%	-2%
No	93%	Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025	Oct 13, 2024	94%	-1%	+2%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	4%	9%	-5%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	2%	7%	-5%	-1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

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