.png)
.png)
Confirmed previous forecast
1.101166
Relative Brier Score
240
Forecasts
39
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 83 | 12 | 486 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 194 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 43 | 12 | 116 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 44 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
2%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(-1%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(-3%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Updated since lack of progress despite being closer to resolution date
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Updated since lack of progress despite being closer to resolution date
Files
New Prediction
.png)
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 07:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
.png)
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
Updated as closer to date
Files
New Prediction
.png)
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 07:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-3%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
100%
(+3%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Updated based on recent lack of progression
Files
Updated since lack of progress despite being closer to resolution date