Confirmed previous forecast
-0.053789
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 317 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 56 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 87 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
100%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 7%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
99%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Increasing confidence
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Still perfectly possible in this time frame
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
1->0% based off of the recent summit