RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.00021
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	-0.059155
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.024046
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.005576
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.000055
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	-0.000035
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?	0.221767
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.081199
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	0.003624
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.087272
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000052
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	-0.000225
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	-0.001096
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	-0.07361
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)	0.000053
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)	0.000155
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	0.000754
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)	0.000587
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023)	0.000523

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