Relatively good bot identification software - far from perfect, but functional - exists and has been recommended by disinformation researchers for several years. Public pressure around generative AI is increasing, and this is likely to become a high-profile issue with considerable impetus to take action (regardless of the actual utility of that action). However, social media companies tend to be very slow to respond to this type of pressure, and have an investment in the growth of generative AI, which will be a force against even preliminary labeling - thus the prediction of a 50/50 chance.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A dramatic event such as January 6th with unlabeled AI-generated material implicated would significantly increase the pressure on social media companies, and the resulting likelihood of labeling and/or filtering.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2023 06:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2023 to Feb 28, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-28%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
No clear changes in Russian public or elite opinion that might force an ouster in the next month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sometimes these changes can happen abruptly, as with Chinese 0 covid policy.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 15, 2023 06:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2022 to Jan 15, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+55%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
China has made several moves toward ending the policy over the past month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may minimize changes to the policy, or continue the policy by name while changing content to avoid the appearance of giving in to protesters.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This is likely to appeal to people in the tech industry who are comfortable with OpenAI selling both the poison and the antidote, and with a private company hosting their ID - a limited population who are likely to lean toward signing up early. I would expect sign-ups to continue, but not at their initial rate.
Why might you be wrong?
Positive press coverage and encouragement from leaders in other fields could create new waves of signups.