Relatively good bot identification software - far from perfect, but functional - exists and has been recommended by disinformation researchers for several years. Public pressure around generative AI is increasing, and this is likely to become a high-profile issue with considerable impetus to take action (regardless of the actual utility of that action). However, social media companies tend to be very slow to respond to this type of pressure, and have an investment in the growth of generative AI, which will be a force against even preliminary labeling - thus the prediction of a 50/50 chance.
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Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
A dramatic event such as January 6th with unlabeled AI-generated material implicated would significantly increase the pressure on social media companies, and the resulting likelihood of labeling and/or filtering.
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Why do you think you're right?
This is likely to appeal to people in the tech industry who are comfortable with OpenAI selling both the poison and the antidote, and with a private company hosting their ID - a limited population who are likely to lean toward signing up early. I would expect sign-ups to continue, but not at their initial rate.
Why might you be wrong?
Positive press coverage and encouragement from leaders in other fields could create new waves of signups.