RAND Forecasting Initiative

2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 10, 2023 04:00PM	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	0.000014
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.000003
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.006429
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.000006
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.000024
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.000019
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.000785
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.000003
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.000003
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.000985
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000348
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.0008
Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	0.000017
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.000884
Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	0.0