RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.001298
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	-0.000338
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.009
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	-0.000266
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	0.022874
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.000206
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.001639
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	-0.00206
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.001568
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	-0.000006
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	-0.000087
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?	-0.000071
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?	0.000453
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?	0.000018
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?	-0.000032
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?	-0.000023
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?	-0.000017
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?	0.000256
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?	-0.000306
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.001597

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