RAND Forecasting Initiative

2023 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.006429
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.000006
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.000024
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.000019
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	-0.000793
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.000785
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.000003
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.000003
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.0
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.016916
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.000985