46th
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sanyer

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Background in Mathematics and Systems Sciences, pivoting towards tech policy.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.059854
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.059691
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.010211
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? -0.016252
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000059
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.000302
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000942
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? -0.00036
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.036897
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? 0.010794
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.135352
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.001176
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.000176
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.006878
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) 0.020111
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000262
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? 0.000066
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024) 0.0
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) -0.000059
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.0
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