It seems that the current price is around $200, and I feel it is unlikely and unrealistic that the price will be cut in half in under 5 months.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Technology is advancing rapidly, and it may be entirely possible that it will be able to be sequenced in a cheaper manner by that time.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The broad wording of this statement that any European country can send fighter jets to Ukriane leads me to believe there is a higher likelihood that this will happen. Additionally, the one year anniversary of the war just passed, making countries more aware of the war, which may prompt additional action to try to end it.
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Why might you be wrong?
April 30th is coming up, and a government directive to send fighter jets may take more time to pass through the various government systems before it would get approved.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 8, 2023 05:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 8, 2023 to Mar 8, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
It would be hard to obtain accurate statistics on the true feelings on the Russian public. The public in Russia have many reasons not to voice their true opinions, and may face danger if they speak out against Putin. For these reasons, the data will almost certainly show that Putin has a high approval rating, even if this does not accurately reflect Russian attitudes towards him.
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Why might you be wrong?
It could be true that Russians will have the courage to speak out against him, as the Russia Ukraine conflict is having a massive impact on Russian citizens.
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Russia's voting systems are extremely biased and unfair in favor of Putin. It is highly unlikely that the will of the people would be recognized in a free and fair election