Nah, these things are pretty rare.
(I’m practicing at doing quick forecasts - better than not doing it at all.)
0.551172
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 24, 2023 04:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Aug 24, 2023 to Feb 24, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
If the last one was in 2018 (five years ago), I’ll use the copernican principle and assume it happens roughly once every 10 years. That means 10% in the next year. I’ll bump it up very slightly since political tensions are higher now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be political, natural disaster like Fukushima, unexplained error like their systems failing, or cyber attack like happened before.
semiconductor slump means they may be running machines and factories less hard, less skipping maintenance, so maybe lower chance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I’ve read spacex has ambitious plans. And the nature of their business is that I expect them to accelerate, making rockets faster and cheaper.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be a high-profile failure with spacex. Or, China may be more ambitious than I realized.
I pulled it in toward 50% since I don’t have a ton of confidence, I didn’t do any research on China for instance.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Extrapolate past trend, and multiply by more usage.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe legal approval will be pulled, vastly reducing it,