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Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
If the last one was in 2018 (five years ago), I’ll use the copernican principle and assume it happens roughly once every 10 years. That means 10% in the next year. I’ll bump it up very slightly since political tensions are higher now.
Why might you be wrong?
Could be political, natural disaster like Fukushima, unexplained error like their systems failing, or cyber attack like happened before.
semiconductor slump means they may be running machines and factories less hard, less skipping maintenance, so maybe lower chance.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
I’ve read spacex has ambitious plans. And the nature of their business is that I expect them to accelerate, making rockets faster and cheaper.
Why might you be wrong?
Could be a high-profile failure with spacex. Or, China may be more ambitious than I realized.
I pulled it in toward 50% since I don’t have a ton of confidence, I didn’t do any research on China for instance.
Why do you think you're right?
Extrapolate past trend, and multiply by more usage.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe legal approval will be pulled, vastly reducing it,