Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:00AM
(26 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 08:00AM
(26 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 20% | 8% | +12% | -5% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 30% | 7% | +23% | -7% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 5% | 14% | -9% | -4% |
| Not before 2026 | 45% | 71% | -26% | +17% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 4, 2025 07:53PM
(17 days ago)
Apr 4, 2025 07:53PM
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025 | May 4, 2025 07:53PM | 2% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 96% | Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025 | May 4, 2025 07:53PM | 98% | -2% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 5% | -4% | +1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
Apr 5, 2025 02:28PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025 | May 5, 2025 02:28PM | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025 | May 5, 2025 02:28PM | 98% | -1% | +0% |