Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 06:27PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 18, 2024 06:27PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 9% | +4% | -15% |
| No | 87% | 91% | -4% | +15% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:57AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 11:57AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8% | +0% | -5% |
| No | 92% | 92% | +0% | +5% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:57AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 11:57AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 02:30PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 02:30PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 24% | -9% | -8% |
| No | 85% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 76% | +9% | +8% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025 | Dec 15, 2024 | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025 | Dec 15, 2024 | 99% | -2% | +0% |