Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 05:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 05:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 21% | +4% | -4% |
| No | 75% | 79% | -4% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 12:09PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
Oct 01, 2024 12:09PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 0% (the number of disinformation cases will decrease) | 5% | 1% | +4% | -19% |
| More than or equal to 0% but less than 25% | 8% | 2% | +6% | -18% |
| More than or equal to 25% but less than 50% | 15% | 5% | +10% | -15% |
| More than or equal to 50% but less than 75% | 27% | 13% | +14% | -7% |
| More than or equal to 75% | 45% | 79% | -34% | +59% |