Confirmed previous forecast
0.19238
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
18
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 7 | 69 | 18 | 73 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Yes
67%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
96%
(-2%)
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I'm increasing my estimate from 2% to 4% after reading "AI 2027".
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think the most likely reason is because it will happen later -- e.g. during 2026+
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
20%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
30%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
45%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I'm very uncertain but I do see political attempts for the ceasefire happening now, and I think they will either succeed soon or completely fail and not happen at all this year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am really not up to date with the Ukrainian and Russian requirements and preferences for a ceasefire, and I don't know how partial ceasefires count for the purpose of this forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
Yes
67%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm very uncertain here, but I think the US drama will not lead to a faster or slower ceasefire, and I expect the war to continue for another 3 years approximately.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lots of things can go wrong/right; in particular, the Ukraine-NATO relationsihp may change, and Russia may become more aggressive.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files