| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
I find it unlikely that one of these will happen:
- China will gain access to the chips required to reach this level and also have such efficiency that other companies fare worse
- China will make huge efficiency jumps that other companies won't make too
update from 25% to 8%: time is running out, and I imagine Israel may wish to wait until the US election results are out and stable
I'm flipping on this, from 80% to 13%, after seeing ctsats's statistical analysis and agreeing with most of it. I think the chances of a sudden burst-discovery are about 1 in 20 for any given month, and we have 2-3 months to go, so this seems like a good enough approximation.
Reducing previous prediction slightly due to low rate so far
Based only on historical data, I think it'll increase again, by 50%-100%
I can imagine two ways this could happen, both unlikely but definitely possible:
1. Israel-Gaza war ends with a peace treaty in the next ~3 months, and peace treaty includes some huge pro-Palestine compromise -- enough to "make up" for Israel's somewhat more tarnished appearance internationally since the Oct 7 attack.
2. Israel politicians and [?] politicians make some shady politically-motivated deal to normalize relations, in exchange for some major favor -- e.g. Israel sending them weapons. This could happen soon specifically because Netanyahu, Israel's PM, is somewhat desperately looking for more "wins" to stay in power.