Confirmed previous forecast
0.525275
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
25%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
This comment seems accurate. The mass resignations are a bad sign as well as his arrest/release/related protests.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
25%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 5%
25%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75%
More than or equal to 6%
Based on this blog post + the fact that there's no way it will go below 5% because that would be bucking historical trends.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
U.S. is ahead with only a few days left in the month
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Question resolved soon and no reason to think Russia will do this before then.
Files
Updating to reflect crowd