tsheber

Victoria Sheber
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-0.004367

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 15
Comments 0 0 0 0 5
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 7
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 Definitions
New Prediction

Updating to reflect crowd

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earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
tsheber
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 5%
25% (0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75% (0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

This comment seems accurate. The mass resignations are a bad sign as well as his arrest/release/related protests. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Some polling (albeit from April) shows him with a 23% lead.

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tsheber
earned a new badge:

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tsheber
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 5%
25% (0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75% (0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
tsheber
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
tsheber
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 5%
25%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
75%
More than or equal to 6%
Based on this blog post + the fact that there's no way it will go below 5% because that would be bucking historical trends.
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New Prediction

U.S. is ahead with only a few days left in the month

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New Prediction

Question resolved soon and no reason to think Russia will do this before then.

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