We are already seeing LLMs being used for influence operations
4.363165
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Files
Any links or other evidence?
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
We have already seen a western country doing this, as well as many autocratic countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Media companies that rely on trust will see the value of this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
The cost will prevent the companies from doing this until required by law
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
70%
More than or equal to 6 million
6 million is a relatively low number, and I believe the benefit will appeal to many if they can get some press coverage.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
- One or more of mentioned companies will want to avoid/reduce the negative attention for their platforms in connection with the 2024 elections.
- Emerging EU regulation will require the companies to take such steps
Files