We are already seeing LLMs being used for influence operations
1.254063
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Files
Any links or other evidence?
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
We have already seen a western country doing this, as well as many autocratic countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Media companies that rely on trust will see the value of this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
The cost will prevent the companies from doing this until required by law
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
70%
More than or equal to 6 million
6 million is a relatively low number, and I believe the benefit will appeal to many if they can get some press coverage.
Files
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
- One or more of mentioned companies will want to avoid/reduce the negative attention for their platforms in connection with the 2024 elections.
- Emerging EU regulation will require the companies to take such steps
Files