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Vanessa
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RFI team member and Managing Director at Cultivate Labs

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.435885
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? -0.156327
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? -0.024603
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? 0.13618
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? -0.053479
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? 0.040294
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.015223
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.391428
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? 0.105223
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.047536
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM UTC What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.17078
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.112689
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? 0.298107
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021? 0.230255
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? 0.102286
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? 0.051612
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.143731
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.02324
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? -0.090616
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.103972
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