vpsays

The current cases are 29 as of 1/17/25. I'm assuming most of the disinformation will happen before the February election and then trickle off. Spreading out the higher probabilities mostly across the middle bins in the 60-89 range. I think it can be in the low 60s if misinformation cases fall off after the election, yet there's also a general trend towards an increasing amount of misinformation efforts as reported widely among different sources, which is accounting for my probabilities in the slightly higher bins.

Update

I think the threat perception is likely to stabilize and be fairly comparable to 2024 numbers, if not slightly higher. The potential conservative shift in the German government will probably mean they'll be more hawkish on Russia and even increase deterrence efforts. With Trump as president, it may increase Europe's concerns about reduced U.S.  support for Ukraine and elevate the perceived Russian threat. 

There's some possibility given the current advancements by Chinese companies and the government's heavy focus on AI. However, some of the significant barriers for China include strong competition from existing non-Chinese leaders and U.S. export controls which continue to restrict China's access to the most advanced equipment.