RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.005896
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023)	0.0026
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.039531
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	0.001355
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	0.00221
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.043096
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.074335
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.187928
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.008386
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.073656
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.051979
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.059385

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