winkelby

i tihnk everyone is weary of this war and there is a good chance we see a truce in this time frame.

in a tri-polar hegemon world where world powers "make deals" -  natural resources for peace, baselessly claim sovereignty over others lands,  etc.  - increases the chances of emboldening china to make a move for Taiwan. given a base case that this will happen in the next 4 years and a six month time frame im putting the odds at 100 / 4 / 2 or a whopping 12.5%  

IMO that TSMC is based in Taiwan makes china more likely to make a move, not less. foundries are expensive and take a long time to get set up. trump wont lift a finger against Xi if he can "make a deal".

DeepSeek. 

lowering forecast on news that hyperscalers are cutting back on chip spend. im thinking msft will be the winner here. apple is getting beaten down in china.

going with non-zero.

so iran has an energy crisis - that may be the spark for the next round of protests. per NYT article :

Seyed Hamid Hosseini, a member of the Chamber of Commerce’s energy committee, said in telephone interview. “They are scrambling to manage the crisis and contain the damage because this is like a powder keg that can explode and create unrest across the country.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/21/world/middleeast/iran-economy-energy-crisis.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20241223&instance_id=143005&nl=the-morning®i_id=177947273&segment_id=186456&user_id=e5a99dc67c933e84c4975306d22eef18