| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 12 | 55 | 18 | 217 |
| Comments | 1 | 6 | 34 | 12 | 123 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 59 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| Definitions | |||||
so i see less of an impetus in the short term more in the long term. with highest odds at/around christmas and new years. zelinsky is highly motivated to do a peace deal (trump not-withstanding). putin, less so.
IMO if putin agrees to a peace deal its only to improve his tactical position (resupply, rearm, reposition) before breaking the deal and continuing on until he achieves his goal or is ousted.
who really knows anything.
who really knows anything.
after seeing the demands and the responses in the first rounds of back and forth, im lowering my odds here.
who really knows anything? also, the unexpected can and does happen. there are long tail events we arent even thinking of.
Why do you think you're right?
increasing the odds on the short term end, lowering them on the long term end. my initial thinking was there is more time on the long end vs the short end and therefore likelyhood skews in that direction.
that get weighed again the facts that (1) this war is essentially at a stalemate and (2) putin is a cynical lying murderous SOB and a cease fire will only happen if he really really needed to reconstitute rearm or redeploy men and material.
Why might you be wrong?
objective ignorance. i know i dont know many, many things. there are so many variables , moving parts, and unseen possibilities that make this question so hard to forecast.