129th
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winkelby

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? -0.039531
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.001355
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.000952
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.00221
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.043096
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? 0.074335
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.187928
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.008386
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.073656
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.051979
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.059385
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.000665
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? 0.24381
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) 0.27777
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) 0.494903
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022? -0.05596
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.060769
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? 0.100198
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022? 0.495976
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